AustralieFrV1, Main, Exploration, bibRecord, 003F80

Response of El Niño sea surface temperature variability to greenhouse warming

Identifieur interne : 003F80 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 003F79; suivant : 003F81

Response of El Niño sea surface temperature variability to greenhouse warming

Auteurs : SEON TAE KIM [Australie] ; WENJU CAI [Australie, République populaire de Chine] ; Fei-Fei Jin [États-Unis] ; Agus Santoso [Australie] ; LIXIN WU [République populaire de Chine] ; Eric Guilyardi [France, Royaume-Uni] ; Soon-Il An [Corée du Sud]

Source :

Nature climate change : (Print) [ 1758-678X ] ; 2014.

RBID : Pascal:14-0251163

Descripteurs français

Pascal (Inist)
- El Nino, Température surface marine, Interaction atmosphère océan, Réchauffement climat, Changement planétaire, Changement climatique, Facteur anthropique, Gaz effet serre, Siècle 21eme, CMIP5, Modèle climat, Modèle multiple, Modèle circulation générale, Projection climatique, Modèle couplé.
Wicri :
- topic : Changement climatique.

English descriptors

KwdEn :
- Anthropogenic factor, Century 21st, Climate models, Climate prediction, Coupled model, El Nino, General circulation models, Multimodel, Sea surface temperature, climate change, climate warming, global change, greenhouse gas, ocean-atmosphere interaction.

Abstract

The destructive environmental and socio-economic impacts of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation^1,2 (ENSO) demand an improved understanding of how ENSO will change under future greenhouse warming. Robust projected changes in certain aspects of ENSO have been recently established^3-5. However, there is as yet no consensus on the change in the magnitude of the associated sea surface temperature (SST) variability^6-8, commonly used to represent ENSO amplitude^1,6, despite its strong effects on marine ecosystems and rainfall worldwide^1-4,9. Here we show that the response of ENSO SST amplitude is time-varying, with an increasing trend in ENSO amplitude before 2040, followed by a decreasing trend thereafter. We attribute the previous lack of consensus to an expectation that the trend in ENSO amplitude over the entire twenty-first century is unidirectional, and to unrealistic model dynamics of tropical Pacific SST variability. We examine these complex processes across 22 models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) database¹⁰, forced under historical and greenhouse warming conditions. The nine most realistic models identified show a strong consensus on the time-varying response and reveal that the non-unidirectional behaviour is linked to a longitudinal difference in the surface warming rate across the Indo-Pacific basin. Our results carry important implications for climate projections and climate adaptation pathways.

Affiliations:

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Le document en format XML

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<front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">The destructive environmental and socio-economic impacts of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation<sup>1,2</sup>
 (ENSO) demand an improved understanding of how ENSO will change under future greenhouse warming. Robust projected changes in certain aspects of ENSO have been recently established<sup>3-5</sup>
. However, there is as yet no consensus on the change in the magnitude of the associated sea surface temperature (SST) variability<sup>6-8</sup>
, commonly used to represent ENSO amplitude<sup>1,6</sup>
, despite its strong effects on marine ecosystems and rainfall worldwide<sup>1-4,9</sup>
. Here we show that the response of ENSO SST amplitude is time-varying, with an increasing trend in ENSO amplitude before 2040, followed by a decreasing trend thereafter. We attribute the previous lack of consensus to an expectation that the trend in ENSO amplitude over the entire twenty-first century is unidirectional, and to unrealistic model dynamics of tropical Pacific SST variability. We examine these complex processes across 22 models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) database<sup>10</sup>
, forced under historical and greenhouse warming conditions. The nine most realistic models identified show a strong consensus on the time-varying response and reveal that the non-unidirectional behaviour is linked to a longitudinal difference in the surface warming rate across the Indo-Pacific basin. Our results carry important implications for climate projections and climate adaptation pathways.</div>
</front>
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Response of El Niño sea surface temperature variability to greenhouse warming

Response of El Niño sea surface temperature variability to greenhouse warming

Source :

Descripteurs français

English descriptors

Abstract

Links toward previous steps (curation, corpus...)

Le document en format XML

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